Bangladesh is again at a political crossroads following the dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s long-standing government in 2024. What began as student-led protests escalated into a nationwide movement that forced Hasina into exile, paving the way for an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. However, as unrest continues and the new leadership struggles to assert control, many question whether the military will again step in to fill the power vacuum.
The Fall of Sheikh Hasina and the Rise of an Uncertain Future
Sheikh Hasina, who ruled Bangladesh for 15 years, was forced to step down after widespread protests erupted over job quotas, corruption, and human rights abuses. These protests, spearheaded by students and the youth, rapidly evolved into a call for regime change.
Hasina’s departure in August 2024 led to the establishment of an interim government with Yunus. The new leadership promised to introduce critical reforms in governance, the judiciary, and the electoral system to pave the way for free and fair elections. While Yunus has set a tentative timeline for elections in late 2025 or early 2026, scepticism remains over whether his administration can navigate the country through this volatile period without further turmoil.
Mounting Unrest and Security Challenges
Despite promises of reform, the interim government has struggled to control growing lawlessness. A stark example of this instability was the recent violence in Cox’s Bazar, where civilians clashed with military personnel over a minor traffic dispute, leading to fatalities. Such incidents highlight the fragile state of law and order in Bangladesh today.
Human rights organizations have also raised concerns about rising gender-based violence and increasing restrictions on women’s mobility. The lack of security and growing discontent have further strained the credibility of the interim leadership, leaving room for speculation about a potential military intervention.
Will the military step in?
Historically, the Bangladesh Army is a significant player in the country’s politics and has thus far pledged support for the interim government. General Waker-uz-Zaman has assured that the military will remain professional and assist the administration in transitioning to democracy. However, given the country’s history of military takeovers, many fear that continued instability could prompt the army to assume direct control.
Bangladesh has witnessed several coups since its independence in 1971, and in moments of extreme political uncertainty, the military has often positioned itself as the ultimate arbiter of stability. While General Zaman’s statements suggest a commitment to democratic transition, history has shown that such assurances can change swiftly when unrest spirals beyond control.
The Rise of New Political Movements
In the wake of Hasina’s ousting, new political entities are emerging to reshape Bangladesh’s future. One such group is the Students Against Discrimination (SAD), which played a key role in the protests that led to the regime change. Led by activist Nahid Islam, this youth-driven movement is now in the process of forming a political party aimed at addressing issues of inequality and governance failures.
The emergence of such movements signals a potential shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape, but whether they can establish a credible alternative to traditional power blocs remains uncertain.
Challenges Ahead
The interim government faces daunting challenges as it attempts to stabilise the country. The key hurdles include:
- Restoring Law and Order: The increasing civil unrest and security challenges must be urgently addressed to prevent further chaos.
- Implementing Institutional Reforms: Reforms in the judiciary, law enforcement, and governance structures are essential for long-term political stability.
- Managing the Military’s Role Maintaining a balance between civilian governance and military cooperation will be critical in avoiding another power grab.
- Economic Recovery: Addressing inflation, unemployment, and financial uncertainty will be crucial in restoring public confidence.
- Facilitating Democratic Transition: Ensuring that elections are free, fair, and inclusive will define Bangladesh’s future trajectory.
What lies ahead for Bangladesh?
As Bangladesh navigates this period of uncertainty, the prospect of a return to military rule remains a looming question. While the interim government has promised democratic reforms, its ability to deliver on them remains in doubt. The military’s current stance is one of support, but if unrest continues unchecked, the temptation to intervene may grow stronger.
At the same time, the rise of new political movements offers a glimmer of hope for a more inclusive and democratic future. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can break free from the cycle of authoritarianism and transition into a truly representative democracy or if history will repeat itself with another military intervention.
One thing is clear: the world is watching, and Bangladesh’s political future hangs in the balance.
